LOS ANGELES, CA – Scientists are keeping a vigilant eye on a newly discovered asteroid, dubbed a potential “city killer.” The celestial object, identified as 2024 YR4, was first observed on December 27 by an observatory in Chile. According to calculations by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 1.6% chance that the asteroid could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032.
The asteroid’s brightness suggests it measures between 130 and 300 feet in width. For context, the asteroid that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was over six miles wide. While the likelihood of a catastrophic impact is low, the potential consequences warrant careful monitoring.
Currently, the asteroid is rated a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from 0 to 10. A rating of 0 indicates no risk of impact, while a 10 signifies a collision capable of causing global devastation. Although the probability of 2024 YR4 striking Earth is slim, astronomers stress the importance of refining their calculations. They anticipate a better understanding of its trajectory when the asteroid makes a closer pass by Earth in 2028.
In the event of an impact, scientists are uncertain about the exact location it might strike due to the current imprecision in its tracking. However, historical data provides a grim reminder: in 1908, an asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening 830 square miles of forest. Should a similar event occur in a densely populated area, the consequences would be catastrophic, albeit localized.
NASA has been proactive in planetary defense. In 2022, the agency successfully altered the course of an asteroid through its DART mission, demonstrating the feasibility of redirecting potential threats. However, any intervention with 2024 YR4 would depend on the data gathered in 2028 and the asteroid’s distance from Earth.
Despite the potential threat, experts emphasize that there would be ample warning time should the asteroid pose a genuine danger. This advance notice would allow for evacuation and other precautionary measures to minimize harm to human life.
In related news, astronauts Sonny Williams and Butch Wilmore, currently aboard the International Space Station, are set to return to Earth earlier than planned. Their return is anticipated around March 19, following logistical adjustments to expedite the arrival of their replacements.